How to Read Your Probability of Winning in Baccarat?


Every casino game online has its own house edge to keep the business running, and a few games have higher edges than others. Baccarat is one such game that has a very low house edge, and that’s why it can sustain itself in an industry where everyone else fails.

This is also the reason why many players opt for this game, thinking that they will always win. However, it is advisable to learn the correct probabilities of winning in baccarat to know how to play your hands well and take advantage of casino offers.

For Starters…

Baccarat is a card game where the players bet on whether the banker hand (player hand) or the player hand (banker’s hand) will win after the dealer shuffles and deals them.

The game is easy to learn, but in order to get better at it, you need to take some time and study its mechanics. You can choose between three different hands: player, banker, or tie.

The goal is simple – bet on a card value such as 5 or 8 to get the highest number of points.

The dealer deals two cards to each hand out of 6 total cards in a shoe – one at a time, starting with the player and alternating between hands (so first card to the player’s hand, then banker’s hand, and so on). If either player or banker has an 8-card or 9-card, the player’s hand will take precedence over the banker’s one (if it has a higher value card).

The goal is to get closest to 9 without going over. Each card is worth its face value except for the Ace cards, which are 1 point, and a 10, which is 0 points. If you have 5 or more, then you must say ‘Baccarat!’ and the dealer will give you a third card.

After each hand is played, the banker will deal one additional card to both hands until neither has more than eight cards (banker’s final total is also known as “first point” – the first value of his hand in points). If either player or banker goes over nine points, the hand is a “bust,” and no one wins (as per standard rules).

When cards are dealt, each side wagers on:

  • Player hand will beat the banker hand (Player bet)
  • Banker hand will beat the player hand (Banker bet)
  • Tie (if both have the same hand, it’s known as TIE bet)

The banker is the only one who can make a wager. All other players will be playing “against” the bank, so to speak, so their bets are made in opposition to the banker’s bet (the same way all odd or even bets are against the shooter in craps).

When Playing Baccarat, Remember That….

One of the most important things to remember when playing baccarat online or in a brick-and-mortar casino is that you do not play against the dealer. You play against other players at your table, and you play against the house.

This means that as a player, there is only one possible way of winning – by having your cards add up to more than the banker’s or, in some cases, other players. In this case, you win 1-1, that is to say, even money.

In fact, if it is a tie, which happens when the first two cards of each player and the dealer make up a perfect 10 – the player wins 2-1, which represents the house advantage.

This ‘house edge’ is the casino’s average profit over time, and it is what keeps them in business. The edge has been worked out mathematically, and every game has a different one. As long as casinos can keep these edges high, they are happy to keep the game going.

When playing baccarat online, you need to remember that because the banker and, to a lesser extent, every other player at your table will have a slightly different advantage over you, which means that it is impossible for everyone at one table to win. This is called ‘mixed strategy’, which simply means that if you don’t know what the next cards are, you cannot count on them.

It should be fairly obvious by now that baccarat is a game with only one possible outcome: win or lose. How much you win is directly proportional to how well you play. Remember that for anyone who plays smartly, there is no such thing as a losing streak.


The bottom line is that there is no way to tell your chances of winning in baccarat. At the end of the day, you can only rely on being dealt better cards than your opponent or the dealer and hope they don’t improve during play. Remembering this tip will put you ahead of the game.

There is a lot of luck involved in gambling, and, more often than not, things are simply out of your control. However, knowing the rules and strategy of any game you plan to play will put you ahead of the majority of other players who haven’t taken the time to find out how to play their game properly.